FC St. Pauli 4-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Ingolstadt 04 make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 3W 0D 0L from 3 2. Bundesliga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.67 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Ingolstadt 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Ingolstadt 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC St. Pauli. A 1.00 PPG lead over FC Ingolstadt 04 (1.67 vs 0.67) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Ingolstadt 04 — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC St. Pauli 33% | FC Ingolstadt 04 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 50% | FC Ingolstadt 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.36 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.393 / defence 0.943 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.791 / defence 1.603. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.356. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.603 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 FC St. Pauli games / 6 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 65% | Draw 23% | FC Ingolstadt 04 12%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | FC Ingolstadt 04 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC St. Pauli 33% | FC Ingolstadt 04 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 65% | Draw 23% | FC Ingolstadt 04 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG FC St. Pauli 2.36 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.393 / def 0.943 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.791 / def 1.603 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
FC St. Pauli 4 - 1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 65% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. Flip it around — FC Ingolstadt 04's attack (0.79x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.38
12%
8.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.37
1.01
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
8.22
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
9%
10.62
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
1%
87.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.01 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 1D 2L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Ingolstadt 04 sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Ingolstadt 04 have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
FC Ingolstadt 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 3.00 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or FC Ingolstadt 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 1-3 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (FC St. Pauli) and 33% (FC Ingolstadt 04) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC St. Pauli and 67% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; FC Ingolstadt 04 in 33%; FC Ingolstadt 04 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 33% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 67% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do FC St. Pauli and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC St. Pauli run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat FC Ingolstadt 04 4-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.36 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.01 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.39 / defence 0.94 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.79 / defence 1.60, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 65% | Draw 23% | FC Ingolstadt 04 12%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 50%, FC Ingolstadt 04 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.