FC St. Pauli 3-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host 1. FC Nürnberg at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC St. Pauli haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Nürnberg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (FC St. Pauli) versus 1.20 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC St. Pauli register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 65% and 1. FC Nürnberg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 65% | 1. FC Nürnberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.62 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.023 / defence 0.930 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.972 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.363. Data: 34 FC St. Pauli games / 34 1. FC Nürnberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 70% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.62 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.023 / def 0.930 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.972 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.23
1. FC Nürnberg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (2 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.02) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.34
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.85
1.23
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
19.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.23 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 16W 9D 9L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. FC St. Pauli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 14W 9D 11L from 34 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. 1. FC Nürnberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.68 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.18 PPG from 17 outings (11W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 6D 5L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Pre-Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 16W 9D 9L in their last 34 games (1.68 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 9D 11L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.18 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.41 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC St. Pauli go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
0
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 59%, 1. FC Nürnberg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC St. Pauli and 59% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC St. Pauli's games and 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.62 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 65%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.68 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.