FC Schalke 04 2-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as FC Schalke 04 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to VELTINS-Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 at VELTINS-Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Schalke 04 are significantly better at VELTINS-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Schalke 04 1.50 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Schalke 04, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 64% and SC Paderborn 07 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 64% | SC Paderborn 07 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.72 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.371 / defence 1.119 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.044 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.483. FC Schalke 04 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 FC Schalke 04 games / 22 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 37% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 80% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 37% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.72 / SC Paderborn 07 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.371 / def 1.119 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.044 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
SC Paderborn 07 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 February 2022 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 37% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (1.37) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.84
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.46
1.73
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
7%
15.37
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.73 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 11W 4D 7L from 22 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 6L across 22 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.68 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 6W 4D 0L across 10 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.45 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 73%.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 11W 4D 7L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 8D 6L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 2.00 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 2.20 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Schalke 04 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC Schalke 04
1
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Schalke 04 at 80%, SC Paderborn 07 at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Schalke 04 and 70% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Schalke 04's games and 70% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 70% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SC Paderborn 07 2-0 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.72 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.73 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.37 / defence 1.12 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 37% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 37%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 64%, SC Paderborn 07 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.68 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.