FC Schalke 04 1-2 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Schalke 04 host Karlsruher SC at VELTINS-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 3W 2D 5L at VELTINS-Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Karlsruher SC — All Games: 2W 3D 1L from 6 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.83. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Karlsruher SC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karlsruher SC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Schalke 04 at 1.30 PPG versus Karlsruher SC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
FC Schalke 04 in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Karlsruher SC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 67% versus Karlsruher SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Schalke 04 67% | Karlsruher SC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.39 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.086 / defence 1.277 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.835 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.292. Data: 6 FC Schalke 04 games / 6 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | Karlsruher SC 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Karlsruher SC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 50% | Karlsruher SC 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | Karlsruher SC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.39 / Karlsruher SC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.086 / def 1.277 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.835 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Karlsruher SC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 September 2021 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
FC Schalke 04 1 - 2 Karlsruher SC.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 34% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (1.09) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
34%
2.95
33%
3.06
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.77
1.38
Karlsruher SC xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.38 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karlsruher SC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 1L across 6 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.67 PPG, Karlsruher SC on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karlsruher SC's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Karlsruher SC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
Karlsruher SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Karlsruher SC away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.33 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or Karlsruher SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karlsruher SC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Karlsruher SC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting Karlsruher SC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
2
Draws
4
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, Karlsruher SC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when FC Schalke 04 1-0 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karlsruher SC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Schalke 04 at 100%, Karlsruher SC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Schalke 04 and 67% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karlsruher SC in 33%; Karlsruher SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Schalke 04's games and 67% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 67% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karlsruher SC defy the odds to beat FC Schalke 04 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat FC Schalke 04 1-2 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.39 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.09 / defence 1.28 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | Karlsruher SC 33%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Karlsruher SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 67%, Karlsruher SC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.67 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.