1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host SV Darmstadt 98 at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 3W 3D 1L from 7 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.71 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 1W 3D 0L from 4 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.43 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 1.71 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 1.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 57% versus SV Darmstadt 98 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 43% | SV Darmstadt 98 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.851 / defence 0.840 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.763 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.367. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 1. FC Heidenheim games / 7 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 44% | Draw 34% | SV Darmstadt 98 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 44% | Draw 34% | SV Darmstadt 98 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.851 / def 0.840 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.763 / def 1.452 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 44% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
44%
2.27
34%
2.96
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.19
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.88 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.71 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded. SV Darmstadt 98's attacking output running into 1. FC Heidenheim's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.67 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 67%, SV Darmstadt 98 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 100% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 33% of games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 100% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.85 / defence 0.84 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.76 / defence 1.45, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 44% | Draw 34% | SV Darmstadt 98 22%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 43%, SV Darmstadt 98 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.71 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.