1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as 1. FC Heidenheim take on Holstein Kiel.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host Holstein Kiel at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 3W 3D 1L from 7 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 2W 4D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.30 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 46% versus Holstein Kiel 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | Holstein Kiel 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.912 / defence 1.047 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.842 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.348. Data: 13 1. FC Heidenheim games / 13 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 35% | Holstein Kiel 31%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Holstein Kiel 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 57% | Holstein Kiel 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 35% | Holstein Kiel 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 / Holstein Kiel 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.912 / def 1.047 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.842 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Holstein Kiel xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 34% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
35%
2.85
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.45
1.19
Holstein Kiel xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.19 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 5L across 13 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.38 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 1W 4D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Holstein Kiel away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.83 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 67%, Holstein Kiel at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 67% (Holstein Kiel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 83% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 67% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.19 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 35% | Holstein Kiel 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Holstein Kiel 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.38 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.