1. FC Heidenheim 2-4 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 2W 3D 0L from 5 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 6W 1D 2L across 9 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.11 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.11 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.67 vs 2.11 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 56% versus FC St. Pauli 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | FC St. Pauli 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.902 / defence 0.841 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.786 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.446. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 1. FC Heidenheim games / 9 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 38% | Draw 37% | FC St. Pauli 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | FC St. Pauli 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | FC St. Pauli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 38% | Draw 37% | FC St. Pauli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 / FC St. Pauli 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.902 / def 0.841 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.786 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC St. Pauli xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 4 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 38% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.90x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.79x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
38%
2.66
37%
2.69
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.16
0.96
FC St. Pauli xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.96 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 2L across 9 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.11 scored and 0.89 conceded. FC St. Pauli's attacking output running into 1. FC Heidenheim's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.00 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 75%, FC St. Pauli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 50% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 50% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 50% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-4 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.96 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli outscored their 0.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 38% | Draw 37% | FC St. Pauli 25%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, FC St. Pauli 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.67. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.