Erzgebirge AUE 2-3 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Holstein Kiel travel to Erzgebirgsstadion to take on Erzgebirge AUE. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Erzgebirgsstadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Holstein Kiel are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Erzgebirge AUE, 1 for Holstein Kiel and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Erzgebirge AUE in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 52% versus Holstein Kiel 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 52% | Holstein Kiel 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 0.89 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.704 / defence 1.453 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.797 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.500. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Erzgebirge AUE games / 21 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 17% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 56%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Holstein Kiel 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Erzgebirge AUE 50% | Holstein Kiel 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 17% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 0.89 / Holstein Kiel 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.704 / def 1.453 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.797 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Holstein Kiel xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel?
Erzgebirge AUE 2 - 3 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 17% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel?
Record (1 meetings): Erzgebirge AUE 0W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Erzgebirge AUE's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
17%
5.76
27%
3.69
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.63
1.74
Holstein Kiel xG
5.76
17%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
3%
32.77
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.74 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Erzgebirge AUE come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 6D 12L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Erzgebirge AUE — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Erzgebirge AUE's home form reads 2W 1D 7L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (2W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.29 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 62%.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 3W 6D 12L in their last 21 games (0.71 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.70 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 2-3 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Erzgebirge AUE at 50%, Holstein Kiel at 90%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Erzgebirge AUE and 70% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's games and 90% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 70% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out Erzgebirge AUE 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Erzgebirge AUE 2-3 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 0.89 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.74 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Erzgebirge AUE beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.70 / defence 1.45 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.80 / defence 1.12, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 17% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 56%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 52%, Holstein Kiel 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.