Energie Cottbus 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Energie Cottbus host 1. FC Nürnberg at Stadion der Freundschaft in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Energie Cottbus — All Games: 2W 2D 3L from 7 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.14 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 2.14 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Energie Cottbus at Stadion der Freundschaft this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1. FC Nürnberg are 1.06 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.14), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Energie Cottbus in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Energie Cottbus 71% and 1. FC Nürnberg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Energie Cottbus 86% | 1. FC Nürnberg 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Energie Cottbus 1.62 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Energie Cottbus attack 1.024 / defence 1.274 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.122 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.380. Data: 7 Energie Cottbus games / 41 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 32% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 46%. Fair-value odds: Energie Cottbus 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.17. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Energie Cottbus 100% | 1. FC Nürnberg 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion der Freundschaft • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 32% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Energie Cottbus 1.62 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Energie Cottbus attack 1.024 / def 1.274 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.122 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Energie Cottbus xG
Expected Goals
1.97
1. FC Nürnberg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stadion der Freundschaft.
What was the final score in Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Energie Cottbus 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion der Freundschaft.
What competition is Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Energie Cottbus a 32% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Energie Cottbus (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Energie Cottbus's attack rating (1.02) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Energie Cottbus's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
32%
3.12
22%
4.62
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Energie Cottbus xG
Total xG
3.59
1.97
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
4%
22.44
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.97 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Energie Cottbus have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 2W 2D 3L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 5W 2D 0L from 7 games, 2.43 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, 1. FC Nürnberg are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Energie Cottbus.
Venue Form
On home soil, Energie Cottbus have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Energie Cottbus are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 2.86 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 71%.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Energie Cottbus at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Energie Cottbus at home: 1.33 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Energie Cottbus
1
Draws
0
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 1 meetings on record, Energie Cottbus have won 0, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Energie Cottbus 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Energie Cottbus at 100%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Energie Cottbus and 67% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Energie Cottbus home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Energie Cottbus play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Energie Cottbus's games and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Energie Cottbus's matches and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Energie Cottbus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at Stadion der Freundschaft, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Energie Cottbus 1.62 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.97 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Energie Cottbus attack 1.02 / defence 1.27 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Energie Cottbus 32% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 46%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 86% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Energie Cottbus 86%, 1. FC Nürnberg 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Energie Cottbus's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Energie Cottbus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.