Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Arminia Bielefeld welcome SC Paderborn 07 to SchücoArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Arminia Bielefeld) versus 1.50 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Arminia Bielefeld, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 59% versus SC Paderborn 07 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 52% | SC Paderborn 07 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.33 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.870 / defence 1.280 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.935 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.352. Data: 32 Arminia Bielefeld games / 66 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 31% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 44%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 80% | SC Paderborn 07 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 31% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.33 / SC Paderborn 07 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.870 / def 1.280 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.935 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.62
SC Paderborn 07 xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Arminia Bielefeld 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 31% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.87) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
31%
3.18
24%
4.12
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.94
1.62
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.62 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 14W 19D 33L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 29W 18D 19L from 66 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.03 PPG from 33 outings (7W 13D 13L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 13W 11D 9L from 33 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.85 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 14W 19D 33L in their last 66 games (0.92 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 29W 18D 19L in their last 66 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.03 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 64%, SC Paderborn 07 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 61% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 30%; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 27% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 54% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 61% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 2-2 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.33 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.62 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 31% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 44%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, SC Paderborn 07 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.