Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 38%, yet in-form 1. FC Heidenheim provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim meet at SchücoArena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. 1. FC Heidenheim are 0.80 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arminia Bielefeld lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Arminia Bielefeld half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 53% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 46% | 1. FC Heidenheim 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.41 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.893 / defence 1.213 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.892 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.291. Data: 21 Arminia Bielefeld games / 55 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 37%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Heidenheim (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.41 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.893 / def 1.213 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.892 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.40
1. FC Heidenheim xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 38% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.89x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.89x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.96
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.80
1.40
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.40 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 11W 15D 29L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 26W 14D 15L from 55 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (6W 10D 11L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 8W 7D 12L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.56 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 11W 15D 29L in their last 55 games (0.87 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 14D 15L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.04 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
1
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 59%, 1. FC Heidenheim 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 44% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 30% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 41% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.41 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.40 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 37%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 46%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.