1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (1. FC Nürnberg) versus 0.50 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 60% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 63% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.044 / defence 1.108 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.329. Data: 35 1. FC Nürnberg games / 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 49% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 49% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.84 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.044 / def 1.108 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 49% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.04) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.81
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.25
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
4%
25.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.25 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 14W 9D 12L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 3W 10D 22L from 35 games, 0.54 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, 1. FC Nürnberg are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 4D 13L from 17 away games — 0.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.86 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 66%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 games (1.46 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 10D 22L in their last 35 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.59 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.24 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 59%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 82% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 71% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 82% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.25 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 49% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 63%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.