1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Nürnberg face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

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Fixture Analysis

1. FC Nürnberg welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

1. FC Nürnberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (1. FC Nürnberg) versus 1.60 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 4–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 58% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 61% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.029 / defence 0.958 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.959 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.279. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 59 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 59.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 48% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.09 | Draw 3.82 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.86. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 away games).

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