1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.30 for SC Paderborn 07 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 52% versus SC Paderborn 07 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 56% | SC Paderborn 07 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.774 / defence 1.081 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.886 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.318. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 1. FC Nürnberg games / 50 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 40%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | SC Paderborn 07 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06 / SC Paderborn 07 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.774 / def 1.081 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.886 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
SC Paderborn 07 xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 30% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.77x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.89x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.39
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.32
1.26
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.26 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 13D 19L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.54 PPG from 50 outings (21W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.54 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 10W 4D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.67 points per game from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.80 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 50 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 14D 15L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.42 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.67 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SC Paderborn 07 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 62% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 62% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.26 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 40%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 56%, SC Paderborn 07 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.