1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to MDCC-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.60 for Holstein Kiel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — 1. FC Magdeburg register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Holstein Kiel in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.46 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.850 / defence 1.245 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.063 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.330. Data: 2 1. FC Magdeburg games / 36 Holstein Kiel games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 44%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Holstein Kiel 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.46 / Holstein Kiel 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.850 / def 1.245 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.063 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Holstein Kiel xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 31% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (0.85) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.06x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
31%
3.19
25%
4.03
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.22
1.76
Holstein Kiel xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
5%
18.53
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.76 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 0L across 2 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Magdeburg by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Holstein Kiel heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 100%.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 100% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 100% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.46 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.76 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 44%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 100%, Holstein Kiel 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Magdeburg managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.