1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 43%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fritz-Walter-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Kaiserslautern versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Kaiserslautern have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record at Fritz-Walter-Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — 1. FC Kaiserslautern are significantly better at Fritz-Walter-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 1.20 PPG clear of 1. FC Kaiserslautern in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Kaiserslautern register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, SC Paderborn 07 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Kaiserslautern lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Kaiserslautern winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
1. FC Kaiserslautern half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 63% and SC Paderborn 07 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Kaiserslautern 65% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.73 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.101 / defence 1.168 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.933 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.378. Data: 54 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 54 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 43% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 80% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 43% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.73 / SC Paderborn 07 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.101 / def 1.168 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.933 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 43% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack rating (1.10) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.93x) against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.27
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
3.23
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
6%
16.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.50 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 15D 22L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Kaiserslautern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.59 PPG from 54 outings (25W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.59 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.22 points per game from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.85 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 61%.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 25W 11D 18L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.48 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
Draws
6
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%, SC Paderborn 07 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 70% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 63% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 70% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.73 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.50 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.10 / defence 1.17 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 43% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 33%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 65%, SC Paderborn 07 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.22 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.