Valenciennes 2-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Quevilly at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valenciennes face Quevilly.

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Full Analysis

Stade du Hainaut plays host to Valenciennes versus Quevilly in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Valenciennes have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Valenciennes's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Quevilly (all games): 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Quevilly have posted 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Valenciennes, 1.00 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Valenciennes, 1 for Quevilly and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Valenciennes 0–0 Quevilly — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 46% versus Quevilly 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 38% | Quevilly 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Valenciennes surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Quevilly have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.92 xG and Quevilly 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.769 / defence 1.061 | Quevilly attack 1.076 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Valenciennes's last 74 games and Quevilly's last 74.

Result probabilities: Valenciennes 26% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 45%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 3.86 | Draw 3.44 | Quevilly 2.22. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valenciennes 30% (last 10 home games) | Quevilly 50% (last 10 away games).

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