Valenciennes 0-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valenciennes at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valenciennes vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade du Hainaut to face Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Valenciennes (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Valenciennes at Stade du Hainaut this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Valenciennes are significantly better at Stade du Hainaut than their overall form suggests.
Niort have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Valenciennes against 0.90 for Niort. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valenciennes lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Valenciennes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 54% versus Niort 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 41% | Niort 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.84 xG and Niort 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 1.245 / defence 1.385 | Niort attack 0.712 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. Data: 68 Valenciennes games / 68 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 56% | Draw 23% | Niort 21%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Niort 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Valenciennes (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valenciennes as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 80% | Niort 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 56% | Draw 23% | Niort 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Valenciennes 1.84 / Niort 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 1.245 / def 1.385 | Niort attack 0.712 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Niort xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Niort kick off?
Valenciennes vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Niort?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Niort.
Where is Valenciennes vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Niort part of?
Valenciennes vs Niort is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 56% chance of winning, Niort a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valenciennes and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Niort?
Record (3 meetings): Valenciennes 2W | Draws 1 | Niort 0W.
What form are Valenciennes and Niort in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Niort (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valenciennes's attack at 1.25x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.71x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.37
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.87
1.03
Niort xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
3%
29.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.03 for Niort, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valenciennes's recent record stands at 17W 26D 25L from 68 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Niort, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 34L across 68 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.06 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valenciennes have managed 10W 14D 10L from 34 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Niort's away record stands at 7W 8D 19L across 34 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valenciennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valenciennes are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.97 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Niort in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 17W 26D 25L in their last 68 games (1.13 PPG), while Niort have gone 19W 15D 34L in their last 68 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Niort away?
Valenciennes's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.29 PPG; Niort away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valenciennes
2
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 2, Niort have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Valenciennes 0-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Niort?
Valenciennes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 62%, Niort 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Valenciennes) and 44% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Niort in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 35% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Valenciennes's recent games and 44% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Niort tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Niort in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes and Niort finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.84 xG and Niort 1.03 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Niort landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 1.25 / defence 1.39 against Niort attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 56% | Draw 23% | Niort 21%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 41%, Niort 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Niort's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.13 PPG, Niort 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.