Valenciennes 0-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 38%, yet in-form Angers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valenciennes vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Hainaut plays host to Valenciennes versus Angers in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Valenciennes have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Valenciennes have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Angers's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Angers have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Angers are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Angers edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Valenciennes 0–2 Angers — a Angers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 46% versus Angers 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 37% | Angers 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.15 xG and Angers 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.799 / defence 1.060 | Angers attack 0.884 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Angers's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valenciennes's projected output up. Data: built from Valenciennes's last 65 games and Angers's last 27.
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 38% | Draw 31% | Angers 31%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.62 | Draw 3.25 | Angers 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valenciennes as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Angers (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valenciennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valenciennes 40% (last 10 home games) | Angers 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 38% | Draw 31% | Angers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Valenciennes 1.15 / Angers 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.799 / def 1.060 | Angers attack 0.884 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Angers xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valenciennes vs Angers FAQs
What time does Valenciennes vs Angers kick off?
Valenciennes vs Angers kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Angers?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Angers.
Where is Valenciennes vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Angers part of?
Valenciennes vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 38% chance of winning, Angers a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Valenciennes and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Valenciennes vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.80) and Angers's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.88x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Valenciennes's last 65 games and Angers's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.25
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.15
1.01
Angers xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valenciennes vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.01 for Angers, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valenciennes's recent record stands at 12W 25D 28L from 65 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 36L across 65 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.03 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valenciennes have managed 7W 16D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 5W 5D 22L across their last 32 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Angers's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valenciennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valenciennes are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.14 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Angers
Blended
Valenciennes (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valenciennes
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Valenciennes vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Valenciennes and Angers in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 12W 25D 28L in their last 65 games (0.94 PPG), while Angers have gone 19W 10D 36L in their last 65 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Angers away?
Valenciennes's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.16 PPG; Angers away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Valenciennes
1
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Valenciennes vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Angers?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Valenciennes have won 0, Angers have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Valenciennes 0-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 56%, Angers 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Valenciennes) and 50% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes have failed to score in 34% of games; Angers in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valenciennes vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valenciennes and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 41% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valenciennes and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valenciennes's recent games and 50% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 78% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes and Angers finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.15 xG and Angers 1.01 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Angers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Angers attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 38% | Draw 31% | Angers 31%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 37%, Angers 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Angers's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 0.94 PPG, Angers 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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