Toulouse 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Toulouse at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees PAU travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 5W 3D 1L this season (9 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.56 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
PAU — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Toulouse) versus 1.20 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Toulouse, 0 for PAU and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Toulouse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
PAU in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 58% versus PAU 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | PAU 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 2.38 xG and PAU 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.537 / defence 1.215 | PAU attack 0.709 / defence 1.573. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.047. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.537 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.573 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Toulouse games / 20 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 70% | Draw 17% | PAU 13%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | PAU 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 70% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 67% | PAU 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 70% | Draw 17% | PAU 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Toulouse 2.38 / PAU 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.537 / def 1.215 | PAU attack 0.709 / def 1.573 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.90
PAU xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs PAU kick off?
Toulouse vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs PAU?
Toulouse 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Toulouse vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs PAU part of?
Toulouse vs PAU is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 70% chance of winning, PAU a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Toulouse and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 0W.
What form are Toulouse and PAU in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. PAU (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.54x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.76
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.28
0.90
PAU xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
9%
10.75
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
1%
85.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Toulouse and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.90 for PAU, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 10W 7D 2L from 19 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 9L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAU heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.11 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; PAU in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and PAU in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 10W 7D 2L in their last 19 games (1.95 PPG), while PAU have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or PAU away?
Toulouse's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.00 PPG; PAU away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Toulouse or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, PAU in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and PAU runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and PAU?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, PAU have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Toulouse 1-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and PAU?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 67%, PAU 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Toulouse and 56% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PAU in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse's games and 44% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Toulouse's matches and 56% of PAU's.
Do Toulouse and PAU tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PAU in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and PAU finished level at 1-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.38 xG and PAU 0.90 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.54 / defence 1.22 against PAU attack 0.71 / defence 1.57, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 70% | Draw 17% | PAU 13%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, PAU 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.