Sochaux 2-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sochaux and PAU meet at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Sochaux (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's home record at Stade Auguste-Bonal: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Ligue 2 appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAU have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Sochaux — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAU — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sochaux 31% | PAU 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 25% | PAU 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.03 xG and PAU 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.766 / defence 0.934 | PAU attack 0.782 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.975. Sochaux's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Sochaux games / 16 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 42% | Draw 33% | PAU 25%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | PAU 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — PAU's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 12% | PAU 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 42% | Draw 33% | PAU 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Sochaux 1.03 / PAU 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.766 / def 0.934 | PAU attack 0.782 / def 1.473 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.71
PAU xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs PAU kick off?
Sochaux vs PAU kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs PAU?
Sochaux 2 - 1 PAU.
Where is Sochaux vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs PAU part of?
Sochaux vs PAU is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 42% chance of winning, PAU a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sochaux and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sochaux and PAU in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (0.77) and PAU's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.78x) against Sochaux's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
42%
2.37
33%
3.03
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.74
0.71
PAU xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Sochaux and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.71 for PAU, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sochaux come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 4D 4L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Sochaux against 1.50 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sochaux's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.06 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; PAU in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and PAU in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while PAU have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or PAU away?
Sochaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.00 PPG; PAU away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Sochaux or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PAU in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sochaux won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sochaux
0
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 3, PAU have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Sochaux 2-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and PAU?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (Sochaux) and 43% (PAU) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sochaux and 43% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Sochaux have failed to score in 29% of games; PAU in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Sochaux's recent matches and 43% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sochaux's recent games and 43% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and PAU tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, PAU in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out PAU 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat PAU 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.03 xG and PAU 0.71 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sochaux beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against PAU attack 0.78 / defence 1.47, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 42% | Draw 33% | PAU 25%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 25%, PAU 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 1.75 PPG, PAU 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sochaux win broke the near-deadlock. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.