Sochaux 2-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sochaux at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Auguste-Bonal to face Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sochaux's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Bonal this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Bastia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Sochaux's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sochaux 0W, Bastia 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 46% versus Bastia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 31% | Bastia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.00 xG and Bastia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.930 / defence 0.924 | Bastia attack 0.875 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.032. Data: 35 Sochaux games / 35 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 37% | Draw 34% | Bastia 28%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Bastia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sochaux 50% | Bastia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 37% | Draw 34% | Bastia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Sochaux 1.00 / Bastia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.930 / def 0.924 | Bastia attack 0.875 / def 1.153 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Bastia xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Bastia kick off?
Sochaux vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Bastia?
Sochaux 2 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Sochaux vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Bastia part of?
Sochaux vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 37% chance of winning, Bastia a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Sochaux and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Bastia in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.88x) against Sochaux's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
37%
2.67
34%
2.92
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.84
0.83
Bastia xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.83 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sochaux's recent record stands at 18W 10D 7L from 35 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 10L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bastia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 9W 5D 3L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 4W 4D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Bastia in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 18W 10D 7L in their last 35 games (1.83 PPG), while Bastia have gone 9W 16D 10L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Bastia away?
Sochaux's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.88 PPG; Bastia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sochaux
1
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 2, Bastia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Bastia 3-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Bastia?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 35%, Bastia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Sochaux and 41% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bastia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sochaux's recent matches and 53% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Sochaux's recent games and 41% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Bastia tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bastia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Bastia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Bastia 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.00 xG and Bastia 0.83 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sochaux beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Bastia attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 37% | Draw 34% | Bastia 28%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 31%, Bastia 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.