Sochaux 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux at Stade Auguste-Bonal this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sochaux are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Bonal than their overall form suggests.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sochaux, 1.60 for Amiens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sochaux lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sochaux — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 41% versus Amiens 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 32% | Amiens 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.16 xG and Amiens 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.027 / defence 1.108 | Amiens attack 0.767 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.013. Data: 22 Sochaux games / 22 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 42% | Draw 32% | Amiens 26%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Amiens 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sochaux are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 40% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 42% | Draw 32% | Amiens 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Sochaux 1.16 / Amiens 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.027 / def 1.108 | Amiens attack 0.767 / def 1.130 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Amiens xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Amiens kick off?
Sochaux vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Amiens?
Sochaux 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Sochaux vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Amiens part of?
Sochaux vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 42% chance of winning, Amiens a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sochaux and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Amiens in?
Sochaux (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (1.03) and Amiens's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.77x) against Sochaux's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.12
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.02
0.86
Amiens xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.86 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sochaux's recent record stands at 11W 7D 4L from 22 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 7L across 22 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 1W 6D 3L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sochaux are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.18 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Amiens in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Amiens in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 11W 7D 4L in their last 22 games (1.82 PPG), while Amiens have gone 5W 10D 7L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Amiens away?
Sochaux's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.10 PPG; Amiens away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Amiens in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Amiens go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sochaux
2
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 0, Amiens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Amiens 1-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 40%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Sochaux and 20% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Amiens in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sochaux's recent matches and 50% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sochaux's recent games and 20% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Amiens tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Amiens in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.16 xG and Amiens 0.86 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Amiens attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 42% | Draw 32% | Amiens 26%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 32%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.