Saint Etienne vs Reims – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Reims meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Reims have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 3W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Reims — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 46% versus Reims 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Reims 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.52 xG and Reims 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.443 / defence 0.727 | Reims attack 1.016 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Reims's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Saint Etienne games / 43 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 50% | Draw 27% | Reims 24%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Reims 4.17. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 30% | Reims 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 50% | Draw 27% | Reims 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Saint Etienne 1.52 / Reims 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.443 / def 0.727 | Reims attack 1.016 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Reims xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Reims kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Reims is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Reims part of?
Saint Etienne vs Reims is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 50% chance of winning, Reims a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Saint Etienne and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
Record (6 meetings): Saint Etienne 3W | Draws 0 | Reims 3W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Reims (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.44) and Reims's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.02x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.72
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.50
0.97
Reims xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
5%
19.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.97 for Reims, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 23W 8D 12L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 18W 19D 6L from 43 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.70 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (14W 3D 4L).
On the road, Reims have gone 7W 11D 3L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Reims in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 19D 6L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Reims away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.14 PPG; Reims away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Reims in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Reims have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 43%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Saint Etienne) and 43% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Reims in 38%; Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 57% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 43% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Reims tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.