Saint Etienne 2-0 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's home record at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Saint Etienne are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 53% versus RED Star FC 93 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 59% | RED Star FC 93 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.20 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.161 / defence 1.026 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.043 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.190. Data: 25 Saint Etienne games / 58 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 34% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 37%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | RED Star FC 93 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 60% | RED Star FC 93 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 34% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Saint Etienne 1.20 / RED Star FC 93 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.161 / def 1.026 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.043 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.27
RED Star FC 93 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Saint Etienne 2 - 0 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 34% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.16x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.44
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.47
1.27
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.27 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 22W 10D 26L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 20L across 58 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.31 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 13W 5D 11L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.16 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 10D 26L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 19D 20L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.52 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 2-0 RED Star FC 93.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 59%, RED Star FC 93 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Saint Etienne) and 48% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 31%; RED Star FC 93 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 48% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 48% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat RED Star FC 93 2-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.20 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.27 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 25/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 34% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 37%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 59%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.31 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.