Saint Etienne 1-3 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Metz travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Metz's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 2.40 PPG versus Metz's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Metz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with Metz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Metz trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 64% versus Metz 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 54% | Metz 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.13 xG and Metz 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.055 / defence 1.083 | Metz attack 1.225 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.054. Metz have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Saint Etienne games / 31 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 30% | Draw 27% | Metz 43%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Metz 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Metz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Metz 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 30% | Draw 27% | Metz 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Saint Etienne 1.13 / Metz 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.055 / def 1.083 | Metz attack 1.225 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Metz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Metz xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Metz kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Saint Etienne 1 - 3 Metz.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Metz part of?
Saint Etienne vs Metz is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 30% chance of winning, Metz a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Saint Etienne and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Metz?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 1 | Metz 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Metz in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Metz (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.05x the league average against Metz's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
30%
3.29
27%
3.77
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.53
1.40
Metz xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.40 for Metz, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 19W 20D 30L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Metz's form line: 21W 23D 25L from 69 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.12 PPG, Metz on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.26 PPG from 34 outings (11W 10D 13L).
On the road, Metz have gone 10W 10D 14L from 34 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.20 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Metz in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 19W 20D 30L in their last 69 games (1.12 PPG), while Metz have gone 21W 23D 25L in their last 69 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Metz away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.26 PPG; Metz away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Metz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Metz specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Metz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Metz 2-2 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Metz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 62%, Metz 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Saint Etienne) and 47% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Metz in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 44% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 47% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Metz tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Metz in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Saint Etienne 1-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.13 xG and Metz 1.40 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Metz outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Metz attack 1.23 / defence 0.85, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 30% | Draw 27% | Metz 43%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 54%, Metz 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.12 PPG, Metz 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.