Saint Etienne 1-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Saint Etienne take on Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Guingamp at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 1.60 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Saint Etienne's 30% rate and Guingamp's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 1, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 3–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.82 xG and Guingamp 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.866 / defence 0.830 | Guingamp attack 0.863 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Guingamp's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Saint Etienne games / 54 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Guingamp 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 30% | Guingamp 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Saint Etienne 0.82 / Guingamp 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.866 / def 0.830 | Guingamp attack 0.863 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Guingamp xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Guingamp kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Saint Etienne 1 - 3 Guingamp.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp part of?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 33% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Saint Etienne and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.87) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
35%
2.82
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
1.61
0.80
Guingamp xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.26
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 15.9 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.80 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 22W 14D 18L from 54 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 17L across 54 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.48 PPG, Guingamp on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 13W 6D 8L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 11W 9D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 18L in their last 54 games (1.48 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Guingamp away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.67 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Guingamp in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Guingamp have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 41%, Guingamp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Saint Etienne) and 37% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Guingamp in 41%; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 26% of games; Guingamp in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 52% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 37% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Guingamp tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Saint Etienne 1-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.82 xG and Guingamp 0.80 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 0.83 against Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.48 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.