Rodez 1-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Niort meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Rodez's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Rodez have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Niort (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Niort have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Rodez edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2022, ended Rodez 1–1 Niort — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 36% versus Niort 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 27% | Niort 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.21 xG and Niort 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.969 / defence 1.203 | Niort attack 0.829 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 0.982. Rodez's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Niort's projected output up. Data: built from Rodez's last 55 games and Niort's last 55.
Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Niort 30%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.42 | Draw 3.45 | Niort 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 50% (last 10 home games) | Niort 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 January 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Niort 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Rodez 1.21 / Niort 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.969 / def 1.203 | Niort attack 0.829 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.112 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Niort xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rodez vs Niort FAQs
What time does Rodez vs Niort kick off?
Rodez vs Niort kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Niort?
Rodez 1 - 1 Niort.
Where is Rodez vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Niort part of?
Rodez vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning, Niort a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rodez and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Rodez vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.97x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.83x) against Rodez's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Rodez's last 55 games and Niort's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.45
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.19
0.98
Niort xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rodez vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rodez and 0.98 for Niort, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 14W 19D 22L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 16W 14D 25L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Rodez against 1.13 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.11 PPG from their last 27 home games (6W 12D 9L).
On the road, Niort have gone 6W 7D 14L from their last 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.96 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Niort
Blended
Rodez (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rodez
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Rodez vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Rodez and Niort in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 14W 19D 22L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Niort have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Niort away?
Rodez's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.11 PPG; Niort away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Rodez or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Niort in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Rodez vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Niort?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rodez have won 2, Niort have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2023: Niort 2-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Niort?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 44%, Niort 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Rodez) and 48% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 37% of games; Niort in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rodez vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rodez and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rodez's recent matches and 37% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rodez and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Rodez's recent games and 48% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Rodez's recent matches and 67% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Niort share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 18, as Rodez and Niort drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.21 xG and Niort 0.98 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Niort attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Niort 30%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 27%, Niort 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.11 PPG, Niort 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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