Rodez 1-4 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Rodez welcome Metz to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Metz's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.40 (Metz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Metz trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 33% versus Metz 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 26% | Metz 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.37 xG and Metz 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.946 / defence 1.252 | Metz attack 0.970 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.101. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Rodez games / 5 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 37% | Draw 27% | Metz 36%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Metz 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 60% | Metz 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 37% | Draw 27% | Metz 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Rodez 1.37 / Metz 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.946 / def 1.252 | Metz attack 0.970 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Rodez (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Metz xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Metz kick off?
Rodez vs Metz kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Metz?
Rodez 1 - 4 Metz.
Where is Rodez vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Metz part of?
Rodez vs Metz is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 37% chance of winning, Metz a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rodez and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Metz in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Metz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.95) and Metz's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.75
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.70
1.34
Metz xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rodez and 1.34 for Metz, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 11W 15D 17L from 43 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 21L across 43 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.12 PPG, Metz on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 5W 10D 6L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 3W 7D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.02 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Metz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Metz in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Metz have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Metz away?
Rodez's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.19 PPG; Metz away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Rodez or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Metz in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Metz won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Metz specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Metz?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Metz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Metz 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 38%, Metz 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Rodez) and 52% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 38% of games; Metz in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rodez's recent matches and 43% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Rodez's recent games and 52% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Metz tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Metz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Metz run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Rodez 1-4 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.37 xG and Metz 1.34 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Metz outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.95 / defence 1.25 against Metz attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 37% | Draw 27% | Metz 36%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 26%, Metz 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Metz's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.12 PPG, Metz 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.