Rodez 2-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Concarneau travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Concarneau — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rodez 1.50 PPG, Concarneau 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Concarneau trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 80% and Concarneau 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 67% | Concarneau 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.49 xG and Concarneau 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.191 / defence 1.022 | Concarneau attack 0.923 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.149. Data: 52 Rodez games / 15 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 46% | Draw 26% | Concarneau 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Concarneau 3.57. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 70% | Concarneau 25%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 46% | Draw 26% | Concarneau 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Rodez 1.49 / Concarneau 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.191 / def 1.022 | Concarneau attack 0.923 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Rodez (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Concarneau xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Concarneau kick off?
Rodez vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Concarneau?
Rodez 2 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Rodez vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Concarneau part of?
Rodez vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 46% chance of winning, Concarneau a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rodez and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Concarneau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Concarneau in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Concarneau (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.19x the league average against Concarneau's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.86
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.57
1.08
Concarneau xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rodez and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Rodez and 1.08 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 5W 5D 5L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Concarneau's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.33 PPG, Concarneau on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Rodez are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Concarneau have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.07 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Concarneau away?
Rodez's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 2.00 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rodez
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Concarneau 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Concarneau?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 71%, Concarneau 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rodez) and 43% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Concarneau in 43%; Rodez have failed to score in 29% of games; Concarneau in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Rodez's recent matches and 29% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Rodez's recent games and 43% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Concarneau tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Concarneau 2-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.49 xG and Concarneau 1.08 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Concarneau landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Concarneau attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 46% | Draw 26% | Concarneau 28%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 67%, Concarneau 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Concarneau's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Concarneau 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.