Rodez 0-3 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Rodez welcome Bordeaux to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Paul Lignon — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bordeaux have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.00 (Bordeaux). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bordeaux in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 33% versus Bordeaux 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 23% | Bordeaux 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.26 xG and Bordeaux 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.955 / defence 0.946 | Bordeaux attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.981. Data: 39 Rodez games / 1 Bordeaux games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 34% | Bordeaux 21%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Bordeaux 4.76. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 50% | Bordeaux 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 34% | Bordeaux 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Rodez 1.26 / Bordeaux 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.955 / def 0.946 | Bordeaux attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bordeaux xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Bordeaux kick off?
Rodez vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Rodez 0 - 3 Bordeaux.
Where is Rodez vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Bordeaux part of?
Rodez vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 45% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rodez and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Bordeaux in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rodez's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
45%
2.21
34%
2.97
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.05
0.79
Bordeaux xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Rodez and 0.79 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 14D 15L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bordeaux's form line: 6W 14D 19L from 39 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.13 PPG, Bordeaux on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (5W 9D 5L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 67%.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Bordeaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 10W 14D 15L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 6W 14D 19L in their last 39 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Bordeaux away?
Rodez's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.26 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Rodez or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Bordeaux runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bordeaux won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Rodez
2
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bordeaux?
From 3 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Bordeaux have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Rodez 2-2 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 37%, Bordeaux 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 16% (Rodez) and 84% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 37% of games; Bordeaux in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Rodez's recent matches and 68% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 16% of Rodez's recent games and 84% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bordeaux run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Rodez 0-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.26 xG and Bordeaux 0.79 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bordeaux outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Bordeaux attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 45% | Draw 34% | Bordeaux 21%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Bordeaux win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 23%, Bordeaux 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.13 PPG, Bordeaux 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.