Reims 3-3 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Reims welcome Dunkerque to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Dunkerque — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Reims carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Reims, 1 for Dunkerque and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Dunkerque 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | Dunkerque 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.61 xG and Dunkerque 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.140 / defence 0.997 | Dunkerque attack 1.172 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. Data: 35 Reims games / 35 Dunkerque games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reims 41% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 32%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Dunkerque 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Dunkerque 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 41% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Reims 1.61 / Dunkerque 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.140 / def 0.997 | Dunkerque attack 1.172 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Reims (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Dunkerque xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Dunkerque kick off?
Reims vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Dunkerque?
Reims 3 - 3 Dunkerque.
Where is Reims vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Dunkerque part of?
Reims vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 41% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Reims and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Dunkerque?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Reims and Dunkerque in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reims's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.70
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Reims xG
Total xG
3.03
1.42
Dunkerque xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Reims and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Reims and 1.42 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 14W 15D 6L from 35 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 13L across 35 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.63 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 5D 3L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 6W 3D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.63 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dunkerque in 63%.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 14W 15D 6L in their last 35 games (1.63 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Dunkerque away?
Reims's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.88 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Reims or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Reims's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Reims
2
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Dunkerque?
From 3 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Dunkerque have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Reims 3-3 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 47%, Dunkerque 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reims) and 71% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Reims's games and 71% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Reims's matches and 71% of Dunkerque's.
Do Reims and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 2, as Reims and Dunkerque drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.61 xG and Dunkerque 1.42 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dunkerque outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Dunkerque attack 1.17 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reims 41% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 32%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Dunkerque 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.63 PPG, Dunkerque 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.