RED Star FC 93 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Clermont Foot travel to Stade de Paris to take on RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RED Star FC 93 stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Clermont Foot have recorded 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
RED Star FC 93 are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Clermont Foot 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2024, ended RED Star FC 93 1–1 Clermont Foot — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 52% versus Clermont Foot 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 52% | Clermont Foot 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.47 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.829 / defence 1.092 | Clermont Foot attack 0.803 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.100. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RED Star FC 93's projected output up. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 31 games and Clermont Foot's last 31.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 49% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 25%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.04 | Draw 3.80 | Clermont Foot 4.05. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 50% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 49% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG RED Star FC 93 1.47 / Clermont Foot 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.829 / def 1.092 | Clermont Foot attack 0.803 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 49% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RED Star FC 93's last 31 games and Clermont Foot's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.80
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.44
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 0.96 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 8D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (6W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.13 PPG, Clermont Foot on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across their last 15 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 15 away games (4W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.81 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
RED Star FC 93 (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Clermont Foot away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.40 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
RED Star FC 93 have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
RED Star FC 93
3
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Clermont Foot 2-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 47%, Clermont Foot 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RED Star FC 93) and 47% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 27% of games; Clermont Foot in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 33% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 47% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 73% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.47 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Clermont Foot attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 49% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 25%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 52%, Clermont Foot 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.13 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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