Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Paris FC travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Quevilly — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Quevilly's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris FC stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Paris FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Quevilly's games and 60% of Paris FC's (from Quevilly's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Quevilly have won 1, Paris FC 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended Quevilly 2–2 Paris FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Paris FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 49% | Paris FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.02 xG and Paris FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.835 / defence 1.064 | Paris FC attack 1.017 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Data: built from Quevilly's last 63 games and Paris FC's last 63.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.20 | Draw 3.47 | Paris FC 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Quevilly 60% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Quevilly 1.02 / Paris FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.835 / def 1.064 | Paris FC attack 1.017 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Paris FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Quevilly vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Quevilly vs Paris FC kick off?
Quevilly vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Quevilly vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Paris FC part of?
Quevilly vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 31% chance of winning, Paris FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Quevilly and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Quevilly vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.83x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Quevilly's last 63 games and Paris FC's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
31%
3.20
29%
3.47
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.22
1.20
Paris FC xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Quevilly vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.20 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Quevilly's recent record stands at 17W 23D 23L from 63 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 22L across 63 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.17 PPG, Paris FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 8W 13D 10L from their last 31 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 11W 11D 9L across their last 31 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Quevilly (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Quevilly
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Quevilly vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Quevilly and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 17W 23D 23L in their last 63 games (1.17 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 17D 22L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.19 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Feb 2022, when Paris FC won Paris FC 3-0 Quevilly.
Quevilly's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Quevilly vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Paris FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Quevilly have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 61%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Quevilly) and 36% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 36%; Quevilly have failed to score in 32% of games; Paris FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Quevilly vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Quevilly and Paris FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Quevilly's games and 52% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Quevilly and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Quevilly's recent games and 36% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Quevilly's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 26, as Quevilly and Paris FC drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.02 xG and Paris FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 31% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 40%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 49%, Paris FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.17 PPG, Paris FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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