Quevilly 0-3 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Niort meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 1W 2D 2L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Niort (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Niort — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 54% versus Niort 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 46% | Niort 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.06 xG and Niort 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.867 / defence 1.251 | Niort attack 0.650 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 0.927 / away 1.019. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Quevilly games / 11 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 38% | Draw 36% | Niort 26%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Niort 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 60% | Niort 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 38% | Draw 36% | Niort 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Quevilly 1.06 / Niort 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.867 / def 1.251 | Niort attack 0.650 / def 1.324 | league avg home 0.927 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Niort xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Niort kick off?
Quevilly vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Niort?
Quevilly 0 - 3 Niort.
Where is Quevilly vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Niort part of?
Quevilly vs Niort is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 38% chance of winning, Niort a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Quevilly and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Niort in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.87) and Niort's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.65x) against Quevilly's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
38%
2.62
36%
2.75
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.89
0.83
Niort xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.83 for Niort, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Quevilly against 1.36 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Niort's season.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.91 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Niort in 27%.
Defensively: Niort in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Niort in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Niort have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Niort away?
Quevilly's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.00 PPG; Niort away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Niort in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Niort won 0-3 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Niort have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Niort 3-3 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 60%, Niort 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Quevilly and 60% for Niort. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 40% of games; Niort in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Quevilly's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Quevilly's matches and 60% of Niort's.
Do Quevilly and Niort tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Niort in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Niort run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Quevilly 0-3 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.06 xG and Niort 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Niort outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Niort attack 0.65 / defence 1.32, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 38% | Draw 36% | Niort 26%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 46%, Niort 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Niort's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.36 PPG, Niort 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Niort (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.