Quevilly 2-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nancy at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Nancy at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nancy have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nancy have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 1.00 PPG, Nancy 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Nancy trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 50% versus Nancy 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 50% | Nancy 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.92 xG and Nancy 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.734 / defence 1.253 | Nancy attack 0.907 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.975. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Quevilly games / 16 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 30% | Nancy 40%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Nancy 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nancy are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 43% | Nancy 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 30% | Nancy 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Quevilly 0.92 / Nancy 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.734 / def 1.253 | Nancy attack 0.907 / def 1.376 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Nancy (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Nancy xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Nancy kick off?
Quevilly vs Nancy kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Nancy?
Quevilly 2 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Quevilly vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Nancy part of?
Quevilly vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 30% chance of winning, Nancy a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Quevilly and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Nancy in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Nancy (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.73x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.29
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.03
1.11
Nancy xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.11 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Quevilly's recent record stands at 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nancy, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 8L across 16 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.06 PPG, Nancy on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nancy's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.75 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Nancy in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Nancy have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Nancy away?
Quevilly's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 0.86 PPG; Nancy away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Quevilly
0
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Nancy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2022, when Nancy 0-3 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Nancy?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 43%, Nancy 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Quevilly) and 29% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 57% of games; Nancy in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Quevilly's recent matches and 57% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Quevilly's recent games and 29% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Nancy tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Nancy in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Nancy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Nancy 2-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.92 xG and Nancy 1.11 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.73 / defence 1.25 against Nancy attack 0.91 / defence 1.38, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 30% | Draw 30% | Nancy 40%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Quevilly win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 50%, Nancy 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Nancy's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.06 PPG, Nancy 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.