Quevilly 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dijon at 39%, yet in-form Quevilly provide a compelling counter-argument — this Quevilly vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dijon make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Quevilly's 2.00 PPG return is 1.67 points per game ahead of Dijon's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Quevilly register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Dijon in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.95 xG and Dijon 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.964 / defence 1.150 | Dijon attack 0.814 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 0.759 / away 1.328. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Quevilly games / 3 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 24% | Draw 37% | Dijon 39%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Dijon 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Quevilly (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 24% | Draw 37% | Dijon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Quevilly 0.95 / Dijon 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.964 / def 1.150 | Dijon attack 0.814 / def 1.302 | league avg home 0.759 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Dijon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dijon xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Dijon kick off?
Quevilly vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Dijon?
Quevilly 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Quevilly vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Quevilly vs Dijon part of?
Quevilly vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 24% chance of winning, Dijon a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Quevilly and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Dijon in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W. Dijon (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.96x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.81x) against Quevilly's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 2/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
24%
4.10
37%
2.73
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.20
1.24
Dijon xG
4.10
24%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.21
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.24 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Quevilly by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dijon in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Dijon in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Quevilly 2-2 Dijon.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Quevilly's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Quevilly's recent games and 50% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Dijon tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dijon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.95 xG and Dijon 1.24 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Dijon attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 2/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 24% | Draw 37% | Dijon 39%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 50%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.