PAU 2-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Concarneau at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Concarneau travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Concarneau have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Concarneau away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 0.70 PPG, Concarneau 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAU have won 1, Concarneau 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Concarneau in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Concarneau 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 54% | Concarneau 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.33 xG and Concarneau 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.121 / defence 1.391 | Concarneau attack 0.966 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Data: 66 PAU games / 28 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 27% | Concarneau 39%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Concarneau 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Concarneau at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Concarneau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PAU 70% | Concarneau 20%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 27% | Concarneau 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG PAU 1.33 / Concarneau 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.121 / def 1.391 | Concarneau attack 0.966 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Concarneau (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Concarneau xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Concarneau kick off?
PAU vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Concarneau?
PAU 2 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is PAU vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Concarneau part of?
PAU vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 34% chance of winning, Concarneau a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Concarneau the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both PAU and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Concarneau 0W.
What form are PAU and Concarneau in?
PAU (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Concarneau (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.12x the league average against Concarneau's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concarneau Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.75
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
PAU xG
Total xG
2.77
1.45
Concarneau xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are PAU and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for PAU and 1.45 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, PAU have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 9W 10D 9L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 9W 6D 13L from 28 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, Concarneau on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 5W 3D 6L from 14 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Concarneau in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 9W 10D 9L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 9W 6D 13L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Concarneau away?
PAU's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.43 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PAU
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when PAU 2-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Concarneau?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 57%, Concarneau 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (PAU) and 36% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Concarneau in 36%; Concarneau in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of PAU's recent matches and 21% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of PAU's recent games and 36% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Concarneau tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Concarneau 2-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.33 xG and Concarneau 1.45 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Concarneau landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.12 / defence 1.39 against Concarneau attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 27% | Concarneau 39%, with Concarneau to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 54%, Concarneau 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Concarneau's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Concarneau 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.