PAU 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as PAU take on Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for PAU, 1.25 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 25% versus Bastia 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 25% | Bastia 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.82 xG and Bastia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.986 / defence 1.023 | Bastia attack 0.795 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.255. Data: 4 PAU games / 4 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 24% | Draw 40% | Bastia 35%. Fair-value odds: PAU 4.17 | Draw 2.50 | Bastia 2.86. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: PAU 25% | Bastia 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 24% | Draw 40% | Bastia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG PAU 0.82 / Bastia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.986 / def 1.023 | Bastia attack 0.795 / def 1.168 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bastia xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Bastia kick off?
PAU vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bastia?
PAU 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is PAU vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bastia part of?
PAU vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 24% chance of winning, Bastia a 35% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PAU and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Bastia in?
PAU (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-L-L-D. Bastia (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.99x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.80x) against PAU's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.08
40%
2.49
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
PAU xG
Total xG
1.84
1.02
Bastia xG
4.08
24%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.2 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for PAU and 1.02 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for PAU against 1.25 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAU have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Bastia in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Bastia in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Bastia have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 2-6 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
PAU
5
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 25%, Bastia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for PAU and 25% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of PAU's recent matches and 75% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of PAU's recent games and 25% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bastia tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bastia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.82 xG and Bastia 1.02 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Bastia attack 0.80 / defence 1.17, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 24% | Draw 40% | Bastia 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 25%, Bastia 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.00 PPG, Bastia 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bastia managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.