PAU 1-4 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Auxerre at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
PAU's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Auxerre away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAU have won 0, Auxerre 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Auxerre 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 41% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.07 xG and Auxerre 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.023 / defence 1.170 | Auxerre attack 1.071 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 0.953. Data: 32 PAU games / 32 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 38%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Auxerre 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 30% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG PAU 1.07 / Auxerre 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.023 / def 1.170 | Auxerre attack 1.071 / def 1.070 | league avg home 0.978 / away 0.953 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Auxerre xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Auxerre kick off?
PAU vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Auxerre?
PAU 1 - 4 Auxerre.
Where is PAU vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Auxerre part of?
PAU vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 31% chance of winning, Auxerre a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAU and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are PAU and Auxerre in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.02) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.23
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
PAU xG
Total xG
2.26
1.19
Auxerre xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAU and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for PAU and 1.19 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 6D 14L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (16W 10D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of PAU — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
PAU's home form reads 10W 1D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.88 points per game from 16 outings (8W 6D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.53 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Auxerre in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 12W 6D 14L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 16W 10D 6L in their last 32 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Auxerre away?
PAU's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.94 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.88 PPG.
Have PAU or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Auxerre in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Auxerre won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
PAU
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when PAU 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 38%, Auxerre 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAU) and 44% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Auxerre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAU's recent matches and 56% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAU's recent games and 44% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Auxerre tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 1-4 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat PAU 1-4 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.07 xG and Auxerre 1.19 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Auxerre attack 1.07 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 31% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 38%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 41%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.