PAU 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Annecy travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAU haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Annecy have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Annecy — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, PAU have won 3, Annecy 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–5 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Annecy trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 56% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 68% | Annecy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.38 xG and Annecy 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.981 / defence 1.121 | Annecy attack 1.090 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.258. Data: 34 PAU games / 34 Annecy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAU 33% | Draw 27% | Annecy 40%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 80% | Annecy 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 33% | Draw 27% | Annecy 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG PAU 1.38 / Annecy 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.981 / def 1.121 | Annecy attack 1.090 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Annecy (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Annecy xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Annecy kick off?
PAU vs Annecy kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Annecy?
PAU 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is PAU vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Annecy part of?
PAU vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 33% chance of winning, Annecy a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both PAU and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
Record (8 meetings): PAU 3W | Draws 2 | Annecy 3W.
What form are PAU and Annecy in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.98x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
33%
3.05
27%
3.65
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
PAU xG
Total xG
2.92
1.54
Annecy xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are PAU and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PAU and 1.54 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU's recent record stands at 12W 9D 13L from 34 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. PAU haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 12L across 34 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. Annecy haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, Annecy on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAU have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 8W 1D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.44 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Pre-Season
Annecy
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Annecy in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.18 PPG; Annecy away: 1.47 PPG.
Have PAU or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
PAU
2
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
From 9 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Annecy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when PAU 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 59%, Annecy 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for PAU and 59% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of PAU's recent matches and 41% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of PAU's matches and 59% of Annecy's.
Do PAU and Annecy tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Annecy in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat PAU 0-1 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.38 xG and Annecy 1.54 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Annecy attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 33% | Draw 27% | Annecy 40%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 68%, Annecy 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Annecy 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.