PAU 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Annecy travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Annecy have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.10 PPG versus Annecy's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, PAU have won 1, Annecy 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Annecy trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Annecy 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 52% | Annecy 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.792 / defence 1.168 | Annecy attack 0.898 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.061. PAU's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 PAU games / 65 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 28% | Annecy 33%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Annecy 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 28% | Annecy 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG PAU 1.25 / Annecy 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.792 / def 1.168 | Annecy attack 0.898 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Annecy xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Annecy kick off?
PAU vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Annecy?
PAU 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is PAU vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Annecy part of?
PAU vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 39% chance of winning, Annecy a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAU and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
Record (5 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 2 | Annecy 2W.
What form are PAU and Annecy in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Annecy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.79x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.59
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
PAU xG
Total xG
2.36
1.11
Annecy xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for PAU and 1.11 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU's recent record stands at 21W 22D 22L from 65 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 25L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.31 PPG, Annecy on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAU have managed 13W 10D 9L from 32 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 11W 8D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.26 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Annecy in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 21W 22D 22L in their last 65 games (1.31 PPG), while Annecy have gone 23W 17D 25L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Annecy away?
PAU's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.53 PPG; Annecy away: 1.28 PPG.
Have PAU or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Annecy in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
PAU
2
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
From 9 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Annecy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when PAU 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 47%, Annecy 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAU) and 56% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PAU's recent matches and 56% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAU's recent games and 56% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Annecy tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Annecy in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Annecy attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 39% | Draw 28% | Annecy 33%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.