Paris FC 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Paris FC welcome Le Havre to Stade Charléty. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Charléty this season.
Le Havre — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Le Havre have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Le Havre's 2.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Paris FC's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Paris FC have won 1, Le Havre 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 52% versus Le Havre 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 39% | Le Havre 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 0.71 xG and Le Havre 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.864 / defence 1.318 | Le Havre attack 1.109 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.990. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Paris FC games / 54 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 18% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 55%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 70% | Le Havre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 18% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Paris FC 0.71 / Le Havre 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.864 / def 1.318 | Le Havre attack 1.109 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Le Havre xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris FC vs Le Havre kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Paris FC 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Paris FC vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Le Havre part of?
Paris FC vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 18% chance of winning, Le Havre a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Paris FC and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Le Havre in?
Paris FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Le Havre (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Paris FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
18%
5.48
27%
3.72
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.15
1.45
Le Havre xG
5.48
18%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
4%
23.29
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 16.8 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.45 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris FC's recent record stands at 25W 15D 14L from 54 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 15L across 54 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.67 PPG, Le Havre on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 12W 9D 6L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 12W 8D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.17 scored and 0.87 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Le Havre in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 25W 15D 14L in their last 54 games (1.67 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 23W 16D 15L in their last 54 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Le Havre away?
Paris FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Le Havre in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Le Havre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris FC's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Paris FC
4
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, Le Havre have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Paris FC 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Le Havre?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 56%, Le Havre 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Paris FC) and 37% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Le Havre in 48%; Le Havre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Paris FC's recent matches and 37% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Paris FC's recent games and 37% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Le Havre tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Paris FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 17, as Paris FC and Le Havre drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 0.71 xG and Le Havre 1.45 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Le Havre attack 1.11 / defence 0.71, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 18% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 55%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 39%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.67 PPG, Le Havre 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.