Paris FC 3-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Aube plays host to Paris FC versus Concarneau in Ligue 2 (matchday 4). Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Paris FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Paris FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Concarneau's record over their last 3 games: 0W 1D 2L (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%).
The points-per-game gap of 1.17 in Paris FC's favour (1.50 vs 0.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Paris FC's last 10 home games and Concarneau's last 3 games) — Paris FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Concarneau in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 0% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 0% of Paris FC's games and 0% of Concarneau's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 0% | Concarneau 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.25 xG and Concarneau 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.967 / defence 1.068 | Concarneau attack 0.758 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 0.979. Concarneau's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Paris FC's last 41 games and Concarneau's last 3.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 29% | Concarneau 24%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.12 | Draw 3.41 | Concarneau 4.25. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris FC's last 10 home games and Concarneau's last 3 games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 0% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 4 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 29% | Concarneau 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Paris FC 1.25 / Concarneau 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.967 / def 1.068 | Concarneau attack 0.758 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.215 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Concarneau xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Concarneau kick off?
Paris FC vs Concarneau kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Concarneau?
Paris FC 3 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Paris FC vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Paris FC vs Concarneau part of?
Paris FC vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 4) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 47% chance of winning, Concarneau a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Paris FC and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Paris FC vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Concarneau's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.76x) against Paris FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 41 games and Concarneau's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.41
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.79
Concarneau xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.79 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five.
Concarneau, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Paris FC against 0.33 for Concarneau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Concarneau in 0%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Early Season
Concarneau
Early Season
Paris FC (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Early Season
Concarneau
Early Season
❓ Paris FC vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Paris FC or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Concarneau in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Paris FC
1
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 1, Concarneau have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Concarneau 2-2 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Concarneau?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Concarneau's games tend to start slowly — only 0% have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Paris FC) and 0% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Paris FC and 0% for Concarneau.
On the defensive side: Concarneau in 33%; Paris FC have failed to score in 100% of games; Concarneau in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Paris FC's recent matches and 0% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Paris FC's recent games and 0% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Concarneau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Paris FC's recent matches and 0% of Concarneau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Concarneau 3-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.25 xG and Concarneau 0.79 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against Concarneau attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 29% | Concarneau 24%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 0%, Concarneau 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not.
Concarneau's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 0.00 PPG, Concarneau 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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