Paris FC 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Bastia at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 3W 3D 1L this season (7 games, 1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 2W 0D 6L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Paris FC 1.40 PPG, Bastia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Bastia trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 38% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 31% | Bastia 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.27 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.027 / defence 1.052 | Bastia attack 0.839 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.975. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Paris FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Paris FC games / 16 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 46% | Draw 29% | Bastia 25%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Bastia 4.00. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 57% | Bastia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 46% | Draw 29% | Bastia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Paris FC 1.27 / Bastia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.027 / def 1.052 | Bastia attack 0.839 / def 1.360 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bastia xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Bastia kick off?
Paris FC vs Bastia kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Paris FC vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Bastia part of?
Paris FC vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 46% chance of winning, Bastia a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Paris FC and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.03) and Bastia's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.47
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.13
0.86
Bastia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.86 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 3D 5L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Bastia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 3W 3D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.88 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Bastia have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Bastia away?
Paris FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Bastia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bastia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
1
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Bastia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Bastia?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 57%, Bastia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Paris FC) and 57% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Paris FC's games and 57% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris FC vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Paris FC's recent games and 57% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Bastia tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bastia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.27 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Bastia attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 46% | Draw 29% | Bastia 25%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 31%, Bastia 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.