Nimes 2-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nimes host Valenciennes at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nimes — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's home record at Stade des Costières: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Nimes) versus 1.00 (Valenciennes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nimes have won 1, Valenciennes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Nimes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nimes trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Valenciennes trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 55% versus Valenciennes 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 55% | Valenciennes 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.93 xG and Valenciennes 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.953 / defence 1.339 | Valenciennes attack 0.743 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.998. Data: 20 Nimes games / 20 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 32% | Draw 32% | Valenciennes 35%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Valenciennes 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valenciennes as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valenciennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 60% | Valenciennes 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 32% | Draw 32% | Valenciennes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Nimes 0.93 / Valenciennes 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.953 / def 1.339 | Valenciennes attack 0.743 / def 1.006 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Valenciennes xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Valenciennes kick off?
Nimes vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 January 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Nimes 2 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Nimes vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Valenciennes part of?
Nimes vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 32% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Nimes and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 1W | Draws 0 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Nimes and Valenciennes in?
Nimes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nimes's attack at 0.95x the league average against Valenciennes's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
32%
3.10
32%
3.09
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.93
0.99
Valenciennes xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Nimes and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Nimes and 0.99 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes's recent record stands at 7W 5D 8L from 20 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valenciennes, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 8L across 20 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.30 PPG, Valenciennes on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 3W 3D 4L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valenciennes's away record stands at 3W 5D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Valenciennes away?
Valenciennes's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.20 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Nimes or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and Valenciennes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Nimes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nimes's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
1
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, Valenciennes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Nimes 3-3 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Valenciennes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 60%, Valenciennes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Nimes) and 20% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes in 40%; Nimes have failed to score in 40% of games; Valenciennes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Nimes's recent matches and 40% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Nimes's recent games and 20% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Valenciennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Valenciennes 2-1 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.93 xG and Valenciennes 0.99 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.95 / defence 1.34 against Valenciennes attack 0.74 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 32% | Draw 32% | Valenciennes 35%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 55%, Valenciennes 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Valenciennes's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.30 PPG, Valenciennes 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.