Nimes 4-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nimes and Annecy meet at Stade des Antonins in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nimes have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade des Antonins, Nimes have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Annecy (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nimes lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nimes half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 54% versus Annecy 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 43% | Annecy 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.81 xG and Annecy 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.020 / defence 1.208 | Annecy attack 1.054 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.043. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Nimes games / 28 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 48% | Draw 24% | Annecy 27%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 3.70. Nimes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 40% | Annecy 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade des Antonins • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 48% | Draw 24% | Annecy 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Nimes 1.81 / Annecy 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.020 / def 1.208 | Annecy attack 1.054 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Nimes (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Annecy xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Annecy kick off?
Nimes vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stade des Antonins.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Annecy?
Nimes 4 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Nimes vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Antonins.
What competition is Nimes vs Annecy part of?
Nimes vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nimes and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 0W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Nimes and Annecy in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nimes's attack rating (1.02) and Annecy's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.05x) against Nimes's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.09
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Nimes xG
Total xG
3.14
1.33
Annecy xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
4%
22.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Nimes and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Nimes and 1.33 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Nimes have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 7W 5D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 8W 9D 11L from 28 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Nimes against 1.18 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nimes have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (6W 1D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Nimes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 6D 5L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nimes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nimes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.07 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Annecy in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Annecy have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Annecy away?
Nimes's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.46 PPG; Annecy away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Nimes or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nimes
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Annecy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Nimes 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Annecy?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nimes see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 31%, Annecy 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Nimes) and 54% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Annecy in 31%; Nimes have failed to score in 31% of games; Annecy in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Nimes's recent matches and 54% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Nimes's recent games and 54% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Annecy tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Annecy in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nimes run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Annecy 4-0 at Stade des Antonins, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.81 xG and Annecy 1.33 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 1.47, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 48% | Draw 24% | Annecy 27%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 43%, Annecy 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 0.93 PPG, Annecy 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.