Nimes 3-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Nimes take on Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Nimes welcome Amiens to Stade des Costières. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nimes have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 outings — a 1.71 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 0.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Nimes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nimes's home record at Stade des Costières: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Ligue 2 appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Costières.
Amiens — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.71 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Nimes have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.71 vs 0.71) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Nimes trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Amiens trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 43% versus Amiens 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 43% | Amiens 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.77 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.834 / defence 0.952 | Amiens attack 0.862 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Data: 7 Nimes games / 7 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 28% | Draw 38% | Amiens 34%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Amiens 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Nimes's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 33% | Amiens 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 28% | Draw 38% | Amiens 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Nimes 0.77 / Amiens 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.834 / def 0.952 | Amiens attack 0.862 / def 1.148 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Amiens xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Amiens kick off?
Nimes vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Amiens?
Nimes 3 - 3 Amiens.
Where is Nimes vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Amiens part of?
Nimes vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 28% chance of winning, Amiens a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Nimes and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Amiens in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Amiens (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nimes's attack at 0.83x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.56
38%
2.63
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.64
0.87
Amiens xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 16.9 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Nimes and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Nimes and 0.87 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Nimes have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 3W 3D 1L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nimes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens's form line: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nimes are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nimes have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.71 PPG overall record — Amiens travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Nimes are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Amiens in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Amiens in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Amiens have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Amiens away?
Nimes's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.67 PPG; Amiens away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Nimes or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Amiens in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nimes's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nimes
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Amiens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Amiens 1-0 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nimes see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Nimes 33% BTTS, Amiens 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Nimes and 33% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Amiens in 67%; Nimes have failed to score in 67% of games; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nimes's recent matches and 33% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nimes's recent games and 33% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Amiens tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Amiens in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nimes and Amiens share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes and Amiens finished level at 3-3 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.77 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 28% | Draw 38% | Amiens 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 43%, Amiens 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.