Montpellier 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Montpellier and Annecy meet at Stade de la Mosson in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Montpellier have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's home record at Stade de la Mosson: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Mosson this season.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Montpellier's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 43% versus Annecy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 47% | Annecy 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.45 xG and Annecy 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.054 / defence 1.099 | Annecy attack 0.956 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.189. Data: 13 Montpellier games / 47 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 32%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Montpellier if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Montpellier 50% | Annecy 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Montpellier 1.45 / Annecy 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.054 / def 1.099 | Annecy attack 0.956 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Annecy xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Annecy kick off?
Montpellier vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Annecy?
Montpellier 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Montpellier vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Annecy part of?
Montpellier vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 42% chance of winning, Annecy a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Montpellier and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Montpellier and Annecy in?
Montpellier (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Montpellier's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.96x) against Montpellier's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.90
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.70
1.25
Annecy xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.25 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Montpellier's recent record stands at 10W 7D 30L from 47 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 16L across 47 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Annecy by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Montpellier heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 6W 6D 12L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 8W 5D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Montpellier are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Annecy in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 10W 7D 30L in their last 47 games (0.79 PPG), while Annecy have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Annecy in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Montpellier
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Annecy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Annecy 0-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Annecy?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 58%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Montpellier) and 42% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%; Montpellier have failed to score in 33% of games; Annecy in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Montpellier's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Montpellier's recent games and 42% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Annecy tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Montpellier edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.45 xG and Annecy 1.25 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 32%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 47%, Annecy 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Montpellier winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.