Martigues 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Martigues vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Martigues and Guingamp meet at Stade Jean Laville in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Martigues's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Martigues, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Jean Laville, Martigues have gone 0W 1D 7L this season (8 games, 0.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Guingamp arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Martigues — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Martigues 29% versus Guingamp 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Martigues 43% | Guingamp 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Martigues 0.62 xG and Guingamp 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Martigues attack 0.404 / defence 1.549 | Guingamp attack 0.859 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.056. Martigues's attack strength of 0.404 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Martigues games / 52 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Martigues 16% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 56%. Fair-value odds: Martigues 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Martigues's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Martigues 12% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Martigues vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Jean Laville • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Martigues 16% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 35% | xG Martigues 0.62 / Guingamp 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Martigues attack 0.404 / def 1.549 | Guingamp attack 0.859 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Martigues xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Guingamp xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Martigues vs Guingamp kick off?
Martigues vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Stade Jean Laville.
What was the final score in Martigues vs Guingamp?
Martigues 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Martigues vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Laville.
What competition is Martigues vs Guingamp part of?
Martigues vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Martigues vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Martigues a 16% chance of winning, Guingamp a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Martigues vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Martigues and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Martigues vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Martigues and Guingamp in?
Martigues (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Martigues's attack rating (0.40) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.86x) against Martigues's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-2 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
16%
6.10
27%
3.64
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Martigues xG
Total xG
2.02
1.41
Guingamp xG
6.10
16%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
4%
24.87
30%
3.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 18.6 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Martigues vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Martigues and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Martigues and 1.41 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Martigues vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Martigues have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 2W 3D 9L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Martigues is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 7W 1D 6L from 14 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Martigues.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Martigues have posted 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L). That actually lags their 0.64 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guingamp's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Martigues are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.71 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Guingamp in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Martigues
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Martigues and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Martigues have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 games (0.64 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 7W 1D 6L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Martigues at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Martigues at home: 0.17 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Martigues or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Martigues have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Guingamp in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Martigues
0
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Guingamp?
From 2 meetings on record, Martigues have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Martigues and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Guingamp 2-1 Martigues.
Who has won more matches between Martigues and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Martigues see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Martigues) and 50% (Guingamp) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Martigues) and 50% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Martigues have failed to score in 83% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Martigues home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Martigues play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Martigues's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Martigues vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Martigues's recent games and 50% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Martigues and Guingamp tend to score early?
Martigues have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Martigues 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Martigues 0-1 at Stade Jean Laville, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.62 xG and Guingamp 1.41 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.40 / defence 1.55 against Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Martigues 16% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 56%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 43%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Martigues's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.